Why 2026 is the year to quit defense tech

Listen, you should quit defense tech. Right now. Today.

Pack up your Patagonia vest, close that 20th Signal chat, and get out while you still can. Here's why:

Raytheon has been around since 1922. 1922! That was the year the Soviet Union was founded. Warren G. Harding was president. These companies are to defense what the pyramids are to Egypt—quite literally older than the department (in its current form) itself. They have had over a century to perfect the art of converting taxpayer dollars into shareholder value through the elegant medium of multimillion-dollar PowerPoint decks. They've got armies of business development professionals who know exactly which Congressional staffer's birthday is coming up. They have lobbyists on retainer who have lobbyists on retainer. Their corporate org charts are specifically designed to mirror the Pentagon's bureaucratic structure, not despite the inefficiency, but because of it.

It's beautiful, really.

Why would you even try to compete with that? Go literally anywhere else. Pick any industry at random: meal kits, dog food on-demand, another scheduling app, the list goes on. At least if you encounter a competitor, they’re more likely to be a giant than a monolith. Seriously, why are you still here?

It’s not like it’s easy to get the funding. Raising capital in defense tech is absurdly difficult. You have to give a GovCon 101 session in nearly every pitch if they haven’t invested in defense tech before. You need investors who can stomach 18-24 month sales cycles. If you’re trying to bootstrap, the organization with a budget approaching a trillion dollars will tell you they can't find $2 million for your software but then spend $90,000 on a single bolt for an aircraft.

Your innovative solution to a critical problem? "Not in this fiscal year's budget. Try again in 2027. Maybe."

Just give up and let them win.

Obviously, I’m being coy here, but how else are we supposed to feel when this is the environment we’re dealing with?

I’m writing this out of frustration and hope.

Hear me out, but I think all the reasons it feels like you should give up are actually why you should stay.

True, the bureaucracy is real(ly terrible). True, the sales cycles are brutal. True, the regulations are downright Byzantine.

But the bureaucracy exists because government isn’t supposed to be capricious. A slower moving government means we have time to examine it and hold it accountable.

The funding process, as flawed as it may be, is scrutinized because the government has a duty to its taxpayers.

The regulations that slow us down and so often favor those with means to hire experts are, at their core, about managing and restraining the immense and terrifying power of the government.

It’s an imperfect system, but at its core it makes sense … if you can stick it out.

If we concede the only players in this game that matter are the giants, we are giving up on the natural symbiosis this ecosystem needs. Without scrappy, innovative counterbalances nipping at their heels and pulling for change, the system will devolve to one side at huge detriment to the mission.

I truly believe the mission is what makes the difference. The mission is why you should stay instead of going to build that food delivery app. In defense tech, the stakes are existential. Get it wrong in food delivery and that burger and fries arrive cold. Get it wrong in defense and people die.

Saddle up. The next few years are going to weed out the grifters and, paradoxically, entrench more legacy players at the same time. Good companies will also be wiped out by simply being the baby in the bath water.

For those who plan to stick it out, here is my recommended survival guide:

1. Recenter the mission. The small companies that survive will be the ones that can't imagine doing anything else. Take a hard look at your customer and then a hard look at the mirror. What do you bring that the warfighter actually needs?
2. Commit to supporting good partners. We’re bound by a belief that free societies are worth defending and that innovation in technological advantage matters. Show up, support the efforts that matter, and invest in your network.
3. As they say, embrace the suck. It's going to be hard. It's going to take longer than you think. The odds are stacked against you. But remember the system is designed to favor those putting their lives on the line for all of us. But if you stick it out, it will be the most important work you ever do.

So quit if you want. We'll be here building.